Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
